Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Drop Over a Third Under President Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The mean number of per-day murders per month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per new administrative figures. However, public safety specialists have warned that murder figures might not signal enhanced countrywide stability.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in last November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the leadership in September. This information was delivered by the director of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we’ve had over these months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that the previous month the lowest figure of murders were documented for any November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Intense organized crime infighting, alongside the administration's heavily militarised operations to confront the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over four times higher than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her public safety approach for an apparently steeper drop in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and we have specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main components of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Increased collaboration between government departments.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety researchers urged caution that relying on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is especially true considering the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

As reported by the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical period the previous year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain states have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer valid for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the will to properly identify and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was also problematic because it could obscure periods when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean renders spikes of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can cite the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and November 2025 for major offenses, per official data. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

However in spite of these actions, Mexico remains beset by severe violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. Last month there was a notable killing of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of young people protested in the capital and throughout the country to show their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a way to construct a story of improvement. Politically it’s highly potent, socially it’s very debatable,” the analyst concluded.