From Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”