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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its first major military attack on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and abduct its leader – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.