A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
