Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
