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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement wins the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

However the latest field is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime strugglers rising collectively. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still